Thursday, October 07, 2010

Since 2004, the Presidential Election Exit Polls have been readjusted at the end of day, forcing them to match the "official" results. However, these polls also gathered demographic information (in order to remain statistically "fair and balanced"). But these demographic numbers are unavoidably readjusted in the end-of-the-day forcing process -- leading to some stunning inferences. Do you agree with them?


Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
October 7, 2010

Go here for the True Vote Analysis:
http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm


In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59 million.

It is a standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final exit poll to match the recorded vote.
Do you agree that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote?
Yes.

Bush had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 46 million returning Bush voters.
Do you agree?
Yes.

But the Final 2004 NEP indicates that 52.6 million Bush voters returned in 2004.
That means there were 6.6 million phantom returning Bush voters. That is an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters.
Do you agree?
Yes.
Blogger's note: The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of American news organizations formed in 2003 to provide "information on Election Night about the vote count, election analysis and election projections." See Wikipedia.
Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media?
No.

OK, now let’s move on to 2008. Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes.

Do you agree that the Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote?
Yes.

Then you must believe the Final NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning and new voters.
Yes.

The Final indicates that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But that is not plausible (Bush had a 22% approval rating on Election Day 2008).
Do you agree?
Yes, I agree that 12 million is not plausible - but it is possible.

The Final 2008 NEP indicates a 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters.
That is impossible, right?
Yes.

Therefore the Final 2008 NEP returning Bush 46% weighting must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

The Final 2008 NEP also indicates 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate). But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004.
Therefore the Final 2008 NEP returning third-party 5% weighting must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

Correcting to feasible returning voter percentage weights should show that Obama won by more than 9.5 million votes, right?
Yes.

Ok, let’s assume that in 2008, Bush, Kerry and third-party voters turned out in equal proportion to their 2004 recorded vote. That is a plausible if there was zero fraud in 2004 (i.e. the recorded vote was equal to the True Vote).
Do you agree?
Yes.

Assuming proportional returning voter turnout, Obama won by 14.7 million votes.

But virtually all election analysts have concluded that the 2004 election was stolen. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.

If Kerry won the election by 52-47%, then Obama won by 22 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 53.5-45.1%, a 10.5 million vote margin.

If Kerry won by 53.5 - 45.1%, then Obama won the True Vote by 22.9 million.

The True Vote calculations used the same Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares that were forced to match the recorded vote. So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. So there can be no argument there.

The 5.25 million returning 2004 third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. So there can be no argument there.

Impossible 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%) returning voter turnout ratios were replaced by feasible 98% and 97% turnout. So there can be no argument there.

Q.E.D.

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